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☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ The Fed will likely end up with a three cut median this week, says Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will likely end up with a three cut median this week, says Morgan Stanley's Ellen ZentnerEllen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss this week's Fed policy meeting, what to expect from Fed Chair Powell, state of the economy, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Powell Organizations: Fed

☆ What investors need to know about ‘Dencun,’ Ethereum’s next big tech upgrade
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Relative to bitcoin , the initial price action following the upgrade is even weaker historically, with ether underperforming 80% of the time in the first 20 days, Saunders added. Saunders warned, however, that the trading environment for crypto is different today than it was during previous Ethereum network upgrades. The scalability problem Dencun follows the "Shapella" upgrade from almost a year ago, which allowed investors to withdraw their staked ether from the network for the first time. This upgrade is focused on the longer-term goal of enhancing Ethereum's ability to handle more activity and transactions as the network grows. "The Dencun upgrade serves as an important step in addressing this congestion, which hurts users and developers alike."

Persons: Alex Saunders, Saunders, Philipp Zentner, bitcoin –, Duncan Ash, Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, Citi, ETH, Metrics, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: U.S

☆ Undocumented immigrants are boosting the labor market and helping the US avoid recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings

☆ Ether climbs another 6% after Monday rally, bitcoin hits record
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Ether on Tuesday continued its march higher as the price of bitcoin took a breath. Bitcoin rose 1% to $68,833.45 and hit a record high above $69,000. "As has often happened in the past, bitcoin approaching record highs has caused a trickledown effect of adoption elsewhere in the ecosystem." With bitcoin up 19% in the past week, meme coins have gained about 175% in the same period, according to CoinGecko. Analysts point to them as evidence that retail investors, who have been absent for much of the recent crypto rally, are starting to return to the crypto market.

Persons: bitcoin, bitcoin's, Philipp Zentner Organizations: Metrics Locations: Bitcoin

☆ Wall Street titans like Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, and Jeffrey Gundlach are still worried about a recession — and warn investors are too complacent
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's a roundup of recent recession warnings from six experts:This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEOAdvertisementThere's a long history of investors being caught off guard by sudden downturns, Dimon told CNBC this week. AdvertisementSteve Hanke, Johns Hopkins professorThe US economy is headed for a recession if history is any indication, Hanke told Business Insider this week. AdvertisementPaul Dietrich, B. Riley Wealth Management's chief investment strategist"We're still on the path to recession," Dietrich told Business Insider in a recent interview. AdvertisementJeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital CEO"I think recession is closer than most people think," Gundlach said in a recent YouTube video.

Persons: —, Jamie Dimon, There's, Dimon, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Solomon, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Steve Hanke, Johns Hopkins, Hanke, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, We're, Dietrich, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, JPMorgan, CNBC, UBS, DoubleLine Locations: American, Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ Wall Street's favorite recession gauge has been flashing for 16 months, but the other key ingredient of a downturn is nowhere to be seen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.

Persons: —, Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait

☆ Apple's EV exit shows the challenges of the once red-hot market
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The ending is abrupt, but Apple's EV ambitions weren't easily realized. AdvertisementNurPhoto/Getty, Tyler Le/BIApple's departure shows how challenging the once red-hot EV market has become. In the long run, Apple's exit could even be spun as a win for the EV market. Less competition is rarely good, but some of Apple's employees could land at rival EV makers, providing a much-needed boost. OpenAI fires back at The New York Times.

Persons: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Tyler Le, Aaron Mok, weren't, Elon Musk, That's, Rivian, Spencer Platt, Mislav Matejka, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Zentner, Jamie Dimon, he's, Slaven, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Satya Nadella, It's, Reddit, isn't, Wendy's, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Republican, Apple, Bloomberg, Tesla, EV, Getty, Elon, Google, Microsoft, The New York Times, Times, Paramount, HP Locations: Michigan, China, New York, London

☆ A hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy, Morgan Stanley's chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A hard landing is guaranteed for the US Morgan Stanley's chief US economist. That's because the full impacts of Fed tightening haven't been fully felt in the economy. It could take 18 months after the last rate hike to feel the full weight of higher rates, economists say. Zentner is expecting the US to avoid a recession this year, as there's no data to support a soon-to-come downturn. AdvertisementStill, signs point to the Fed keeping interest rates elevated as it keeps an eye on inflation.

Persons: US Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's, Zentner, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: US, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Analytics, Bank, Investors

☆ Expect temporary inflation acceleration, says Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect temporary inflation acceleration, says Morgan Stanley's Ellen ZentnerEllen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's rate timeline, the likelihood of a soft landing and more.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

☆ Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner weighs in on the latest U.S. inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner weighs in on the latest U.S. inflation reportEllen Zentner from Morgan Stanley says the Fed won't cut rates till mid this year given hotter-than-expected inflation data. She adds that spending from wealthy households in the U.S. is still strong because white collar layoffs are not happening yet.

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street has adjusted its expectations for when the Fed starts cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders have moved out the probability of a March easing from around 90% in recent weeks to a coin-flip in the days leading up to this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting to about a 1-in-3 chance Thursday. That's not to say the market still doesn't think the committee will cut rates sharply this year, but any dialing back now probably won't come quite as soon as expected. For the most part, Wall Street commentary showed an expectation that the Fed will cut at least four times this year, likely beginning in either May or June. "As inflation falls, real rates become more restrictive, and we think gaining consensus to cut will be easier." Most of Wall Street expects the FOMC to skip November, as the meeting falls the same week as the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Matthew Luzzetti, FOMC, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Powell, David Mericle, Michael Gapen, Marc Giannoni, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Traders, Deutsche Bank, Dow Jones, Fed, Wall, U.S, Bank of America, Barclays

☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.

Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department

NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday. Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesHigh rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. Expectations are split among economists on when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, something that can relieve pressure on the economy and act like steroids for financial markets.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, ” Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, University of Arkansas, Nationwide, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

Retail sales fell 0.1% last month after jumping a strong 0.9% in September, according to a report released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. Excluding sales of gas and autos, retail sales ticked up 0.1%. “The October retail sales report was stronger than expectations, but confirmed a slowdown in consumption,” Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note to clients. Restaurants and bars reported a 0.3% sales increase, though that was much lower than September's 1.6% gain. The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging.

Persons: “, ” Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Commerce Department, Consumer, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, National Retail Federation Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

☆ Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner believes the Fed's appetite for further hikes has waned
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner believes the Fed's appetite for further hikes has wanedEllen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's stance on inflation and the economy.

Persons: Morgan, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley

☆ The Fed will definitely be done tightening if there's a government shutdown, top Morgan Stanley economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve could be about to call time on its rate-hiking campaign, according to Morgan Stanley's top economist. That's because a government shutdown could rob the central bank of key economic data. "In monetary policy making, uncertainty tends to lead to policy paralysis," she told Bloomberg's "What Goes Up" podcast. "If it's a full government shutdown, then you don't really get any of the government data," Zentner added. Around 40% of traders expect the central bank to hike borrowing costs again before the end of this year, according to CME Group's Fedwatch tool.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, ” Ellen Zentner, Ellen Zentner, Bloomberg's, Zentner Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Washington

☆ What higher-for-longer Fed policy will mean for the markets and economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who spoke to the press after the two-day session ended, "Resetting market expectations about real rates was his most important mission," Colas said. But this week's meeting indicated that Fed officials expect rates to stay higher for longer. The thinking there is that if inflation moves lower, the Fed won't need to keep nominal rates as high because real rates will be rising. "But, until one or both of those things happen, higher real rates are the Fed's strategy to tame inflation," Colas said. "This tells us that current equity market churn is unlikely to end until bond markets have settled out."

Persons: wasn't, Nicholas Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, Krishna Guha, Claudia Sahm, Guha, Powell, Powell's, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Mericle, Goldman doesn't, Mericle, DataTrek's Colas Organizations: DataTrek Research, Companies, Evercore ISI, U.S ., Fed

Striking United Auto Workers members Laura Zielinski and Aisha Cochra hold their strike signs outside the Stellantis Jeep plant in Toledo, Ohio, U.S. September 19, 2023. The fledgling auto workers strike, if it lasts and broadens out, could be just that. A prolonged nationwide strike could put already-low inventory under heavy strain, posing "significant" upside risk to auto prices. The United Auto Workers strike against the 'Detroit Three' automakers General Motors, Ford and Stellantis entered its fifth day on Tuesday. Annual inflation has plummeted this year and by some measures now has, or is close to having, a "2" handle - the central bank's 2% goal is within sight.

Persons: Laura Zielinski, Aisha Cochra, Rebecca Cook, Morgan Stanley, Michael Feroli, JP Morgan, Cox, Stellantis, Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: United Auto Workers, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, General Motors, Ford, Cox Automotive, UAW, UBS, University, Thomson Locations: Toledo , Ohio, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Detroit

☆ Even if the Fed holds rates steady in September, policy will stay restrictive, says Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEven if the Fed holds rates steady in September, policy will stay restrictive, says Morgan StanleyEllen Zentner, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, discusses her expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.

Persons: Morgan Stanley Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, Chief U.S, Federal

☆ New economic rules shatter US bonds’ crystal ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Yield curve “inversions” belong to the latter group. At first sight, they are right: Yield curve inversions have been a consistent predictor of future downturns. Yield curve inversions take place when the yield on short-dated government debt climbs higher than that on longer-term bonds. Lower long-dated bond yields are seen as a sign that investors predict lower rates due to an economic downturn. As such, yield curve inversions have become a popular forward indicator of economic recessions.

Persons: Treasuries, There’s, Eugene F, Fama, Kenneth R, joblessness, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Morgan Stanley U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Covid

☆ Hollywood strike, Yellow bankruptcy likely restrained US job growth in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut

☆ How more than a trillion dollars in U.S. government infrastructure spending can boost these 3 industrial stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The U.S. government is deploying trillions of dollars of stimulus money into infrastructure investments, boosting the prospects for a number of industrials in the Club portfolio. Club names Honeywell (HON) and Emerson Electric (EMR) might also grab some of the IRA's funding for green energy. Gains were linked to a boost in demand for construction equipment because of the "once in a generation" Infrastructure bill. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. The White House's infrastructure plan estimates to set aside approximately $35 billion for Texas projects.

Persons: Joe Biden, Emerson, Morgan Stanley, Economist Ellen Zentner, Zentner, Larry Fink, Jim Umpleby, Jim Cramer, Josh Pokrzywinski, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Brandon Bell Organizations: Club, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Act, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Emerson Electric, Morgan Stanley Chief, Economist, CNBC, CAT, Inflation, Bank of America, National, Software, Control, Getty Locations: U.S, North America, Houston , Texas, Texas

☆ US annual inflation posts smallest rise in more than two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.2% last month after edging up 0.1% in May, the Commerce Department said. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index gained 0.2% after rising 0.3% in the prior month. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 4.1%, the smallest advance since September 2021. The annual core PCE price index climbed 4.6% in May. Line chart with data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve shows PCE inflation slowed to 3% year-on-year in June, while core PCE inflation also eased to 4.2%.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Cory Stahle, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commerce Department, Reuters, Treasury, Labor Department, Employers, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine, Salt Lake City , Utah

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